Tooling of Modeling and Strategic Planning of Energy-Efficient Development of the Regional Fuel and Energy Complex

Abstract

The article is devoted to the relevant problem of regional development – elaboration
of methodical tooling and information technologies of macroeconomic modeling and
strategic planning of energy-efficient development of the Russian Federation regions.
The task of energy-efficient development is solved through the search of the agreed
scenarios of development of the Fuel and Energy Complex (FEC) and economy of the
region; the scenarios which help to achieve the maximum approach to the targets for
the offered system of energy indicators. The authors developed a dynamic
multisectoral model of the Fuel and Energy Complex, which reproduces interconnected
production processes, processing, transportation and use of all types of fuel and energy
resources in the region. The methodology of formation of the multiple regional fuel
and energy balance (FEB) is offered. It allows predicting energy intensity and energy
consumption of economy, including, energy consumption of GRP, estimating energy
security and energy efficiency of economy, and revealing “narrow” places and threats
in FEC development. The methods and algorithms allowing solving the problems of
multi-purpose management of FEC for many tens of the purposes and hundreds of
control variables are developed for estimation of achievability of the purposes of
energy-efficient development of the Russian Federation regions. On the basis of the
methods and models, presented in the article, information technologies of situational
forecasting and strategic planning are realized in the form of predictive and analytical
system, aimed at support of managerial decisions of regional authorities in the task of
energy efficiency and energy security increase at the Russian Federation regions. The
developed tooling was calibrated on the statistical material of the Samara region and
was tested while solving practical tasks of strategic planning of energy-efficient
development of the Russian Federation regions.